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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions659502040801201401605688

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+18
Endgame+20
Fouls+32
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave3
2Coral scored#3
11Coral points17
17Total auto20
TeleoperatedBlue +15
8Coral scored#9
27Coral points34
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#3
6Processor points6
4Net points12
10Algae points18
37Total teleop52
Reef
3L4#5
4L3#3
1L2#3
2L1 · trough#1
12Game pieces#16
BargeBlue +2
2Cage & park4
2Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +32
0Foul points12
56Total score88

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
302
#17
45.70.5
37.537.0
Auto15.1
Teleop29.6
End1.0
blue by 3.9
49.60.7
40.539.9
Auto17.1
Teleop30.7
End1.9
Second
8374
#40
15.30.8
12.011.3
Auto3.9
Teleop9.4
End2.1
blue by 9.2
9312
#25
24.51.1
23.822.6
Auto6.3
Teleop15.9
End2.3
Third
6591
#38
13.80.8
10.710.0
Auto2.7
Teleop11.0
End0.1
red by 0.2
13.61.1
19.017.9
Auto0.9
Teleop11.1
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
45%Auto oddsMissed86%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
21%Barge oddsMissed16%Barge oddsMissed