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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions721085015096108

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
Teleop+2
Endgame+14
Fouls+12
AutonomousRed +6
9Leave9
2Coral scored#1
10Coral points4
19Total auto13
TeleoperatedBlue +8
12Coral scored#15
43Coral points55
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
61Total teleop69
Reef
5L4#8
4L3#4
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
18Game pieces#19
BargeBlue +12
14Cage & park26
14Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +12
2Foul points0
96Total score108

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
46.51.6
34.536.1
Auto8.9
Teleop31.5
End6.1
blue by 11.6
58.11.0
56.857.8
Auto10.4
Teleop37.8
End9.9
Second
21.42.7
17.620.3
Auto2.7
Teleop15.4
End3.3
blue by 13.0
503
#12
34.41.0
25.826.8
Auto8.2
Teleop22.1
End4.1
Third
4216
#20
20.41.6
15.116.7
Auto3.0
Teleop15.3
End2.1
red by 9.2
6556
#37
11.31.7
7.49.1
Auto1.0
Teleop7.8
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
54%Auto oddsEarned79%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed12%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
20%Barge oddsEarned62%Barge oddsEarned