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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions486402040801001201406973

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+10
Endgame+4
Fouls+4
AutonomousBlue +7
9Leave9
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points7
9Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +3
10Coral scored#12
36Coral points43
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
54Total teleop57
Reef
4L4#5
3L3#4
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
14Game pieces#16
BargeRed +6
6Cage & park0
6Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +4
0Foul points0
69Total score73

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5144
#18
32.41.4
25.927.4
Auto3.5
Teleop27.3
End1.6
red by 8.7
8300
#14
23.71.2
21.722.9
Auto4.1
Teleop18.4
End1.2
Second
9703
#33
18.21.4
10.211.6
Auto4.2
Teleop11.3
End2.7
blue by 5.0
9210
#15
23.22.0
20.022.0
Auto5.8
Teleop15.2
End2.1
Third
8374
#40
15.32.4
11.313.7
Auto3.9
Teleop9.4
End2.1
red by 6.2
9239
#30
9.12.0
13.515.4
Auto2.2
Teleop6.6
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
31%Auto oddsMissed56%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
13%Barge oddsMissed43%Barge oddsMissed