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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10358020408012014016010121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+31Auto
+70Teleop
+80Endgame
+80Fouls
AutonomousRed +31
6Leave0
7Coral scored#2
34Coral points9
40Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +39
10Coral scored#1
37Coral points4
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
6Processor points0
4Net points4
10Algae points4
47Total teleop8
Reef
6L4#1
4L3#0
3L2#1
4L1 · trough#1
19Game pieces#4
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +80
0Foul points0
101Total score21

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
49.61.0
39.940.8
Auto17.1
Teleop30.7
End1.9
red by 26.1
23.53.3
20.517.1
Auto4.8
Teleop14.5
End4.2
Second
46.51.0
36.137.1
Auto8.9
Teleop31.5
End6.1
red by 28.0
5234
#29
18.52.0
12.710.7
Auto5.3
Teleop9.1
End4.0
Third
7221
#39
10.21.0
10.311.3
Auto4.0
Teleop3.3
End3.0
blue by 3.4
13.63.3
17.914.5
Auto0.9
Teleop11.1
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned49%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
31%Barge oddsEarned17%Barge oddsMissed