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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions975202040608012014016010321

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+76Teleop
+80Endgame
+82Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
9Leave0
3Coral scored#1
14Coral points6
23Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +59
17Coral scored#3
62Coral points9
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
6Processor points0
4Net points4
10Algae points4
72Total teleop13
Reef
9L4#1
5L3#1
4L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
22Game pieces#5
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +82
2Foul points0
103Total score21

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.30.9
42.042.9
Auto10.0
Teleop36.5
End0.9
red by 22.8
7289
#27
24.53.8
19.916.1
Auto6.5
Teleop15.7
End2.3
Second
2960
#13
38.41.4
34.335.7
Auto6.1
Teleop26.8
End5.5
red by 23.3
5225
#31
15.13.8
16.813.0
Auto2.9
Teleop9.1
End3.1
Third
6556
#37
11.31.4
9.110.6
Auto1.0
Teleop7.8
End2.5
red by 2.2
9239
#30
9.13.8
15.411.6
Auto2.2
Teleop6.6
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned49%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
41%Barge oddsMissed29%Barge oddsMissed