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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions84590204010012014010361

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+20Auto
+36Teleop
+36Endgame
+42Fouls
AutonomousRed +20
9Leave6
3Coral scored#0
17Coral points0
26Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +16
12Coral scored#9
43Coral points31
2Processor algae#2
2Net algae#1
12Processor points12
8Net points4
20Algae points16
63Total teleop47
Reef
5L4#4
5L3#2
4L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
19Game pieces#12
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +42
8Foul points2
103Total score61

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7501
#11
37.41.5
37.138.5
Auto5.9
Teleop24.5
End7.0
red by 5.1
5144
#18
32.40.2
29.029.1
Auto3.5
Teleop27.3
End1.6
Second
503
#12
34.41.5
27.328.7
Auto8.2
Teleop22.1
End4.1
red by 20.8
13.60.3
16.817.1
Auto0.9
Teleop11.1
End1.6
Third
6591
#38
13.82.3
8.811.1
Auto2.7
Teleop11.0
End0.1
red by 2.6
6556
#37
11.30.3
10.610.8
Auto1.0
Teleop7.8
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
19%Auto oddsEarned28%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
46%Barge oddsMissed16%Barge oddsMissed