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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions818405010015094123

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+25
Endgame+29
Fouls+29
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave9
4Coral scored#3
19Coral points13
19Total auto22
TeleoperatedBlue +22
11Coral scored#19
39Coral points67
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
12Processor points6
12Net points12
24Algae points18
63Total teleop85
Reef
5L4#7
6L3#6
2L2#5
2L1 · trough#4
20Game pieces#26
BargeBlue +4
12Cage & park16
12Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +29
0Foul points0
94Total score123

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.21.4
43.044.4
Auto11.8
Teleop32.0
End7.3
red by 4.7
46.53.2
37.841.0
Auto8.9
Teleop31.5
End6.1
Second
23.52.2
18.320.5
Auto4.8
Teleop14.5
End4.2
blue by 1.3
7656
#10
24.75.0
20.725.7
Auto4.2
Teleop13.7
End6.9
Third
9239
#30
9.12.2
11.613.8
Auto2.2
Teleop6.6
End0.2
blue by 15.4
7289
#27
24.55.0
16.121.1
Auto6.5
Teleop15.7
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
80%Auto oddsEarned57%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
52%Barge oddsMissed58%Barge oddsEarned