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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6281020401001201402478

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+6
Teleop+10
Endgame+20
Fouls+54
AutonomousBlue +6
3Leave3
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points6
3Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +4
3Coral scored#4
9Coral points13
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
0Processor points0
4Net points4
4Algae points4
13Total teleop17
Reef
1L4#2
1L3#1
0L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
4Game pieces#6
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +54
2Foul points36
24Total score78

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5559
#21
22.72.4
23.421.0
Auto5.5
Teleop14.0
End3.2
blue by 15.1
548
#3
37.82.0
31.429.4
Auto4.1
Teleop27.6
End6.1
Second
6591
#38
13.84.0
17.213.3
Auto2.7
Teleop11.0
End0.1
blue by 10.9
7656
#10
24.73.3
21.117.7
Auto4.2
Teleop13.7
End6.9
Third
6556
#37
11.34.0
17.113.1
Auto1.0
Teleop7.8
End2.5
blue by 4.5
5205
#36
15.73.3
19.616.3
Auto3.2
Teleop10.3
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
72%Auto oddsMissed54%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
18%Barge oddsMissed23%Barge oddsEarned