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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7843020601001201404522

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+25Teleop
+23Endgame
+23Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave6
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +22
6Coral scored#2
22Coral points6
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
6Processor points0
4Net points4
10Algae points4
32Total teleop10
Reef
3L4#1
2L3#1
1L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
9Game pieces#3
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +23
0Foul points0
45Total score22

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5144
#18
32.41.4
26.725.4
Auto3.5
Teleop27.3
End1.6
red by 11.0
21.42.3
17.615.3
Auto2.7
Teleop15.4
End3.3
Second
7289
#27
24.52.3
25.122.8
Auto6.5
Teleop15.7
End2.3
red by 9.2
8374
#40
15.32.3
14.312.0
Auto3.9
Teleop9.4
End2.1
Third
22.51.4
14.012.6
Auto4.7
Teleop16.4
End1.3
red by 7.7
7597
#35
14.81.4
10.79.3
Auto3.0
Teleop9.2
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
48%Auto oddsMissed22%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
21%Barge oddsMissed32%Barge oddsMissed