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Red110
516220.5
335733.5
376767.1
Blue77
664220.1
917632.6
365840.3
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16910305015020025030011077

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+13Teleop
+27Endgame
+33Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
0Leave6
5Coral scored#0
27Coral points0
27Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +8
11Coral scored#14
39Coral points49
1Processor algae#2
4Net algae#2
6Processor points12
16Net points8
22Algae points20
61Total teleop69
Reef
6L4#4
4L3#6
4L2#3
2L1 · trough#1
21Game pieces#18
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +33
6Foul points0
110Total score77

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
67.12.5
85.482.8
Auto18.3
Teleop40.9
End8.0
red by 26.8
40.31.7
38.737.0
Auto5.4
Teleop34.0
End0.9
Second
33.52.5
30.528.0
Auto10.6
Teleop20.7
End2.3
red by 1.0
9176
#24
32.61.7
42.540.8
Auto4.5
Teleop25.1
End3.0
Third
20.52.5
19.917.4
Auto5.7
Teleop14.0
End0.9
red by 0.4
6642
#14
20.11.7
17.816.1
Auto3.0
Teleop17.1
End-0.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
59%Auto oddsEarned50%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
29%Coral oddsMissed13%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
25%Barge oddsEarned64%Barge oddsMissed