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Red144
664220.1
956622.1
819321.9
Blue132
14136.3
516220.5
360332.6
27%Model gave it73%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions76124050100150200250144132

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+30Teleop
+10Endgame
+12Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave0
2Coral scored#2
9Coral points12
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +33
21Coral scored#14
75Coral points50
4Processor algae#2
7Net algae#8
24Processor points12
28Net points32
52Algae points44
127Total teleop94
Reef
8L4#5
7L3#5
4L2#3
4L1 · trough#3
34Game pieces#26
BargeBlue +20
6Cage & park26
6Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +12
2Foul points0
144Total score132

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9566
#18
22.11.1
20.421.5
Auto2.2
Teleop19.7
End0.2
blue by 14.2
141
#19
36.30.3
36.036.3
Auto8.5
Teleop19.7
End8.1
Second
8193
#15
21.91.1
20.221.3
Auto2.6
Teleop16.9
End2.3
blue by 10.7
3603
#20
32.60.3
32.332.6
Auto5.7
Teleop20.1
End6.9
Third
6642
#14
20.11.1
18.419.5
Auto3.0
Teleop17.1
End-0.0
blue by 0.4
20.50.3
20.220.5
Auto5.7
Teleop14.0
End0.9