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Red102
148134.1
924581.2
Blue145
22650.9
86253.4
24010.4
62%Model gave it38%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions164135050100200250300350102145

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
Teleop+19
Endgame+41
Fouls+43
AutonomousBlue +1
0Leave3
7Coral scored#7
36Coral points34
36Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +18
13Coral scored#13
46Coral points46
2Processor algae#3
1Net algae#4
12Processor points18
4Net points16
16Algae points34
62Total teleop80
Reef
8L4#10
5L3#3
4L2#5
3L1 · trough#2
23Game pieces#27
BargeBlue +22
4Cage & park26
4Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +43
0Foul points2
102Total score145

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
81.22.8
85.682.8
Auto19.2
Teleop52.3
End9.7
red by 27.9
862
#7
53.40.9
57.658.5
Auto16.4
Teleop28.7
End8.3
Second
1481
#18
34.12.8
49.146.2
Auto11.1
Teleop18.6
End4.4
blue by 16.8
226
#3
50.90.9
59.360.2
Auto15.1
Teleop27.9
End7.8
Third
0.12.8
9.66.8
Auto2.1
Teleop-2.1
End0.1
blue by 10.3
240
#35
10.40.9
12.313.2
Auto3.8
Teleop5.0
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
82%Auto oddsEarned87%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
32%Coral oddsMissed13%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
73%Barge oddsMissed92%Barge oddsEarned