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Red110
505025.5
81542.3
663741.9
Blue125
24550.2
285137.9
852231.3
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1009650150200110125

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+1Teleop
Endgame+15
Fouls+15
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave6
3Coral scored#4
17Coral points20
23Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +4
17Coral scored#18
61Coral points65
1Processor algae#1
5Net algae#3
6Processor points6
20Net points12
26Algae points18
87Total teleop83
Reef
8L4#8
5L3#7
3L2#3
4L1 · trough#4
26Game pieces#26
BargeBlue +16
0Cage & park16
0Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +15
0Foul points0
110Total score125

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
815
#3
42.31.0
37.138.0
Auto6.4
Teleop34.1
End1.8
blue by 7.9
245
#1
50.21.9
36.538.4
Auto11.6
Teleop33.2
End5.4
Second
6637
#22
41.91.0
32.533.5
Auto11.0
Teleop30.0
End0.8
red by 4.0
2851
#11
37.91.9
19.421.3
Auto5.3
Teleop30.3
End2.3
Third
5050
#13
25.51.0
17.418.4
Auto5.2
Teleop19.4
End0.8
blue by 5.8
8522
#31
31.31.9
32.033.9
Auto5.4
Teleop23.6
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
77%Auto oddsEarned73%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsEarned5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
11%Barge oddsMissed17%Barge oddsEarned