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Red80
965112.7
931238.8
285137.9
Blue76
852231.3
71917.1
118944.5
38%Model gave it62%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions768702040601001201401608076

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+12Auto
+8Teleop
Endgame+2
+4Fouls
AutonomousRed +12
6Leave6
3Coral scored#1
16Coral points4
22Total auto10
TeleoperatedBlue +4
11Coral scored#8
38Coral points30
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#4
6Processor points6
4Net points16
10Algae points22
48Total teleop52
Reef
7L4#3
4L3#4
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
16Game pieces#14
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +4
6Foul points0
80Total score76

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
38.80.4
33.233.5
Auto12.7
Teleop23.8
End2.3
blue by 5.6
44.50.0
41.541.5
Auto7.4
Teleop28.4
End8.7
Second
2851
#11
37.90.4
23.724.1
Auto5.3
Teleop30.3
End2.3
red by 6.7
8522
#31
31.30.0
30.730.7
Auto5.4
Teleop23.6
End2.3
Third
9651
#32
12.70.4
11.712.0
Auto3.0
Teleop9.1
End0.6
red by 5.6
7191
#36
7.10.0
4.24.1
Auto0.2
Teleop6.1
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
79%Auto oddsEarned41%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
13%Barge oddsMissed71%Barge oddsEarned