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Red140
476816.2
526316.0
362066.9
Blue164
663741.9
691426.0
360450.6
20%Model gave it80%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1031246080140160180140164

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+38
Endgame+30
Fouls+24
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave3
5Coral scored#5
24Coral points27
33Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +41
16Coral scored#23
59Coral points84
1Processor algae#3
3Net algae#4
6Processor points18
12Net points16
18Algae points34
77Total teleop118
Reef
8L4#10
8L3#6
3L2#8
2L1 · trough#4
25Game pieces#35
BargeRed +8
24Cage & park16
24Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +24
6Foul points0
140Total score164

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
66.91.6
60.862.4
Auto19.6
Teleop36.2
End11.2
red by 16.3
50.62.5
45.748.2
Auto9.0
Teleop36.9
End4.7
Second
4768
#28
16.22.0
13.715.7
Auto4.1
Teleop9.6
End2.5
blue by 25.7
6637
#22
41.92.5
35.037.5
Auto11.0
Teleop30.0
End0.8
Third
5263
#23
16.01.6
14.416.0
Auto3.3
Teleop8.3
End4.4
blue by 10.0
6914
#19
26.02.5
22.324.8
Auto3.9
Teleop18.6
End3.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
59%Auto oddsEarned78%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
11%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
73%Barge oddsEarned10%Barge oddsEarned