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Red162
24550.2
362066.9
602924.0
Blue169
285137.9
608143.0
663741.9
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15212350100200162169

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+17
Endgame+7
Fouls+7
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave6
4Coral scored#5
20Coral points23
26Total auto29
TeleoperatedBlue +14
23Coral scored#26
82Coral points94
1Processor algae#2
6Net algae#5
6Processor points12
24Net points20
30Algae points32
112Total teleop126
Reef
11L4#14
6L3#6
5L2#7
5L1 · trough#4
34Game pieces#38
BargeRed +10
24Cage & park14
24Total endgame14
Penalties & totalBlue +7
0Foul points0
162Total score169

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
66.90.3
64.765.1
Auto19.6
Teleop36.2
End11.2
red by 23.9
6081
#29
43.01.0
39.640.6
Auto5.9
Teleop31.0
End6.1
Second
245
#1
50.20.3
48.048.3
Auto11.6
Teleop33.2
End5.4
red by 8.3
6637
#22
41.91.0
38.539.5
Auto11.0
Teleop30.0
End0.8
Third
6029
#24
24.00.3
21.822.2
Auto5.0
Teleop10.2
End8.8
blue by 13.9
2851
#11
37.91.0
34.535.6
Auto5.3
Teleop30.3
End2.3