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Red170
24550.2
362066.9
602924.0
Blue153
81542.3
504625.9
931238.8
89%Model gave it11%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15411150100200170153

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
Teleop+3
+17Endgame
+17Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
6Leave0
6Coral scored#5
31Coral points27
37Total auto27
TeleoperatedBlue +13
25Coral scored#24
89Coral points88
2Processor algae#3
2Net algae#4
12Processor points18
8Net points16
20Algae points34
109Total teleop122
Reef
13L4#11
6L3#8
6L2#4
6L1 · trough#6
35Game pieces#36
BargeRed +20
24Cage & park4
24Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +17
0Foul points0
170Total score153

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
66.90.5
65.165.6
Auto19.6
Teleop36.2
End11.2
red by 24.6
815
#3
42.30.8
41.542.3
Auto6.4
Teleop34.1
End1.8
Second
245
#1
50.20.5
48.348.8
Auto11.6
Teleop33.2
End5.4
red by 11.3
38.80.8
38.038.8
Auto12.7
Teleop23.8
End2.3
Third
6029
#24
24.00.5
22.222.7
Auto5.0
Teleop10.2
End8.8
blue by 1.9
5046
#27
25.90.8
25.125.9
Auto5.6
Teleop17.7
End2.6