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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions179180150160170190200210220206203

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
Teleop+5
+13Endgame
+3Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
9Leave9
9Coral scored#7
45Coral points34
54Total auto43
TeleoperatedBlue +16
24Coral scored#26
86Coral points92
3Processor algae#4
6Net algae#7
18Processor points24
24Net points28
42Algae points52
128Total teleop144
Reef
16L4#13
6L3#7
5L2#8
6L1 · trough#5
42Game pieces#44
BargeRed +18
24Cage & park6
24Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +3
0Foul points10
206Total score203

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
27
#3
81.11.9
71.673.5
Auto19.0
Teleop50.7
End11.4
red by 12.4
2832
#12
68.70.8
58.259.0
Auto23.3
Teleop39.3
End6.0
Second
77.61.9
69.671.5
Auto24.2
Teleop44.0
End9.3
red by 14.3
7211
#18
63.20.8
56.957.7
Auto11.6
Teleop41.9
End9.7
Third
9685
#34
26.91.9
22.124.1
Auto7.4
Teleop12.3
End7.2
blue by 34.9
3414
#19
61.80.8
51.852.5
Auto14.8
Teleop40.8
End6.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned99%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
81%Coral oddsEarned46%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
98%Barge oddsEarned90%Barge oddsMissed