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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions128147050100200250300106150

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+22
Endgame+44
Fouls+44
AutonomousBlue +4
6Leave0
3Coral scored#5
17Coral points27
23Total auto27
TeleoperatedBlue +18
17Coral scored#19
61Coral points69
1Processor algae#2
3Net algae#4
6Processor points12
12Net points16
18Algae points28
79Total teleop97
Reef
8L4#9
5L3#6
3L2#6
4L1 · trough#3
24Game pieces#30
BargeBlue +22
4Cage & park26
4Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +44
0Foul points0
106Total score150

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6618
#20
50.50.9
43.342.5
Auto11.6
Teleop35.1
End3.8
blue by 19.4
69.91.0
59.060.1
Auto11.3
Teleop48.2
End10.3
Second
4003
#29
49.30.9
39.538.7
Auto8.2
Teleop36.5
End4.5
blue by 18.9
70
#16
68.21.0
53.554.5
Auto15.4
Teleop41.9
End10.8
Third
8517
#33
36.00.9
36.235.3
Auto8.1
Teleop25.6
End2.3
red by 7.7
4998
#21
28.31.0
22.323.3
Auto5.4
Teleop17.7
End5.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned89%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
11%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
13%Barge oddsMissed86%Barge oddsEarned