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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12218950100150200250140143

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+5
Endgame+3
Fouls+3
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave0
5Coral scored#6
27Coral points30
33Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +8
18Coral scored#14
65Coral points51
3Processor algae#4
2Net algae#6
18Processor points24
8Net points24
26Algae points48
91Total teleop99
Reef
9L4#8
4L3#5
6L2#4
4L1 · trough#3
28Game pieces#30
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +3
0Foul points0
140Total score143

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3655
#15
55.51.5
51.553.0
Auto13.2
Teleop33.1
End9.1
blue by 16.3
71.81.7
66.664.9
Auto20.9
Teleop42.1
End8.8
Second
5509
#14
48.21.5
40.241.7
Auto8.6
Teleop29.6
End10.0
blue by 15.0
7211
#18
63.21.7
57.756.0
Auto11.6
Teleop41.9
End9.7
Third
4453
#35
26.21.5
23.524.9
Auto6.9
Teleop15.0
End4.3
blue by 23.4
2771
#11
49.61.7
41.039.4
Auto10.7
Teleop32.7
End6.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsEarned99%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed27%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
90%Barge oddsEarned97%Barge oddsEarned