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Red209
3385.2
81841.3
283268.7
Blue157
57341.4
148148.8
442255.4
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions191138100150250300209157

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+58Teleop
+46Endgame
+52Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
6Leave6
6Coral scored#1
31Coral points3
37Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +30
33Coral scored#26
118Coral points92
3Processor algae#3
4Net algae#3
18Processor points18
16Net points12
34Algae points30
152Total teleop122
Reef
11L4#8
13L3#6
11L2#6
4L1 · trough#7
46Game pieces#33
BargeBlue +12
14Cage & park26
14Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +52
6Foul points0
209Total score157

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33
#7
85.21.0
77.178.1
Auto19.7
Teleop56.0
End9.5
red by 29.8
4422
#17
55.40.9
47.548.4
Auto12.4
Teleop32.3
End10.7
Second
2832
#12
68.71.0
59.060.0
Auto23.3
Teleop39.3
End6.0
red by 19.9
1481
#25
48.80.9
46.247.1
Auto9.1
Teleop35.1
End4.6
Third
818
#37
41.31.0
40.441.5
Auto7.4
Teleop32.3
End1.6
blue by 0.1
573
#31
41.40.9
39.240.1
Auto6.9
Teleop27.4
End7.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned89%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
88%Coral oddsEarned14%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
75%Barge oddsEarned72%Barge oddsEarned