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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16417150100200250300350170202

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+16
Endgame+32
Fouls+32
AutonomousBlue +4
0Leave0
8Coral scored#9
40Coral points44
40Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +12
20Coral scored#21
72Coral points74
4Processor algae#3
6Net algae#10
24Processor points18
24Net points40
48Algae points58
120Total teleop132
Reef
9L4#12
7L3#6
8L2#8
4L1 · trough#4
38Game pieces#43
BargeBlue +16
10Cage & park26
10Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +32
0Foul points0
170Total score202

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
27
#3
81.10.8
73.574.3
Auto19.0
Teleop50.7
End11.4
red by 3.5
77.62.3
71.573.8
Auto24.2
Teleop44.0
End9.3
Second
43.30.8
38.639.4
Auto3.0
Teleop37.4
End2.9
blue by 7.6
50.82.3
41.944.2
Auto11.5
Teleop30.0
End9.4
Third
8280
#36
36.10.8
34.034.8
Auto13.5
Teleop19.9
End2.8
blue by 14.4
6618
#20
50.52.3
42.544.8
Auto11.6
Teleop35.1
End3.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
80%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
42%Coral oddsEarned22%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
77%Barge oddsMissed85%Barge oddsEarned