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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions129134100110120140150160170180116123

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+25Auto
Teleop+13
Endgame+13
Fouls+7
AutonomousRed +25
9Leave6
6Coral scored#1
28Coral points6
37Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +38
14Coral scored#21
51Coral points75
1Processor algae#2
3Net algae#5
6Processor points12
12Net points20
18Algae points32
69Total teleop107
Reef
6L4#12
5L3#4
5L2#4
4L1 · trough#2
24Game pieces#29
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +7
6Foul points0
116Total score123

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3414
#19
61.81.1
54.153.0
Auto14.8
Teleop40.8
End6.3
red by 12.2
2771
#11
49.60.6
39.438.8
Auto10.7
Teleop32.7
End6.2
Second
8280
#36
36.11.1
34.833.7
Auto13.5
Teleop19.9
End2.8
blue by 12.1
5509
#14
48.20.6
41.741.1
Auto8.6
Teleop29.6
End10.0
Third
4998
#21
28.31.1
26.825.6
Auto5.4
Teleop17.7
End5.2
blue by 15.0
43.30.6
39.438.8
Auto3.0
Teleop37.4
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsMissed80%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsEarned8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
35%Barge oddsMissed55%Barge oddsMissed