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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16913450100150200250128144

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
Teleop+2
Endgame+14
Fouls+16
AutonomousRed +21
6Leave9
8Coral scored#3
38Coral points14
44Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +23
17Coral scored#20
60Coral points73
2Processor algae#3
2Net algae#3
12Processor points18
8Net points12
20Algae points30
80Total teleop103
Reef
11L4#11
8L3#7
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
29Game pieces#29
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +16
0Foul points2
128Total score144

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3539
#13
69.52.4
63.160.7
Auto21.2
Teleop40.3
End8.0
red by 4.8
2611
#27
64.70.4
52.653.0
Auto17.7
Teleop43.5
End3.4
Second
2145
#22
59.92.4
49.747.3
Auto18.0
Teleop37.0
End4.9
red by 9.1
50.80.4
46.246.6
Auto11.5
Teleop30.0
End9.4
Third
573
#31
41.42.4
40.137.7
Auto6.9
Teleop27.4
End7.0
red by 13.1
4998
#21
28.30.4
25.626.1
Auto5.4
Teleop17.7
End5.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned89%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
51%Coral oddsEarned16%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
78%Barge oddsMissed60%Barge oddsEarned