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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions163186100150200250150210

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+40
Endgame+60
Fouls+60
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave3
9Coral scored#10
45Coral points48
54Total auto51
TeleoperatedBlue +43
17Coral scored#25
60Coral points89
2Processor algae#3
5Net algae#7
12Processor points18
20Net points28
32Algae points46
92Total teleop135
Reef
12L4#11
5L3#13
5L2#6
4L1 · trough#5
33Game pieces#45
BargeBlue +20
4Cage & park24
4Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +60
0Foul points0
150Total score210

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2832
#12
68.70.5
65.965.4
Auto23.3
Teleop39.3
End6.0
red by 0.5
70
#16
68.21.9
61.263.0
Auto15.4
Teleop41.9
End10.8
Second
2145
#22
59.90.5
52.652.1
Auto18.0
Teleop37.0
End4.9
red by 4.4
3655
#15
55.51.9
57.359.1
Auto13.2
Teleop33.1
End9.1
Third
9685
#34
26.90.5
27.527.0
Auto7.4
Teleop12.3
End7.2
blue by 28.0
5907
#10
54.91.9
52.154.0
Auto13.2
Teleop38.7
End3.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
99%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
73%Coral oddsEarned54%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
85%Barge oddsMissed89%Barge oddsEarned