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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions189186100150200250300207209

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+8Teleop
Endgame+2
Fouls+2
AutonomousRed +14
9Leave3
10Coral scored#8
49Coral points41
58Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +6
25Coral scored#23
89Coral points81
4Processor algae#5
5Net algae#7
24Processor points30
20Net points28
44Algae points58
133Total teleop139
Reef
15L4#11
8L3#11
5L2#6
7L1 · trough#3
44Game pieces#43
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +2
0Foul points0
207Total score209

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2832
#12
68.71.5
65.466.9
Auto23.3
Teleop39.3
End6.0
red by 0.5
70
#16
68.21.9
63.065.0
Auto15.4
Teleop41.9
End10.8
Second
2611
#27
64.71.5
58.059.6
Auto17.7
Teleop43.5
End3.4
red by 2.8
3414
#19
61.81.9
55.957.9
Auto14.8
Teleop40.8
End6.3
Third
247
#39
51.91.5
49.350.9
Auto8.7
Teleop35.5
End7.7
red by 1.4
6618
#20
50.51.9
49.551.5
Auto11.6
Teleop35.1
End3.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
53%Coral oddsEarned34%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
71%Barge oddsEarned68%Barge oddsEarned