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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions161132100150200250124129

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
Teleop+5
Endgame+3
Fouls+5
AutonomousRed +13
0Leave6
7Coral scored#3
36Coral points17
36Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +18
14Coral scored#19
52Coral points68
3Processor algae#2
3Net algae#5
18Processor points12
12Net points20
30Algae points32
82Total teleop100
Reef
5L4#10
7L3#3
6L2#5
3L1 · trough#4
27Game pieces#29
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +5
0Foul points2
124Total score129

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7211
#18
63.22.4
59.356.9
Auto11.6
Teleop41.9
End9.7
blue by 5.4
2832
#12
68.70.5
58.758.2
Auto23.3
Teleop39.3
End6.0
Second
5530
#32
54.02.4
47.645.2
Auto14.6
Teleop33.6
End5.8
red by 5.2
1481
#25
48.80.5
44.744.2
Auto9.1
Teleop35.1
End4.6
Third
818
#37
41.32.4
45.042.6
Auto7.4
Teleop32.3
End1.6
red by 13.0
4998
#21
28.30.5
22.822.3
Auto5.4
Teleop17.7
End5.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned86%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
28%Coral oddsMissed22%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
82%Barge oddsMissed31%Barge oddsMissed