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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions202203170180190210220230240210207

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+17
+3Endgame
+3Fouls
AutonomousBlue +7
9Leave6
8Coral scored#10
42Coral points52
51Total auto58
TeleoperatedBlue +10
26Coral scored#24
93Coral points85
3Processor algae#4
3Net algae#6
18Processor points24
12Net points24
30Algae points48
123Total teleop133
Reef
13L4#14
8L3#8
6L2#6
7L1 · trough#6
40Game pieces#44
BargeRed +20
36Cage & park16
36Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +3
0Foul points0
210Total score207

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
77.61.7
73.174.8
Auto24.2
Teleop44.0
End9.3
red by 5.8
71.81.4
66.768.1
Auto20.9
Teleop42.1
End8.8
Second
4422
#17
55.41.7
55.657.3
Auto12.4
Teleop32.3
End10.7
blue by 9.3
2611
#27
64.71.4
60.061.4
Auto17.7
Teleop43.5
End3.4
Third
247
#39
51.91.7
50.952.5
Auto8.7
Teleop35.5
End7.7
blue by 8.0
2145
#22
59.91.4
53.054.4
Auto18.0
Teleop37.0
End4.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned99%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
57%Coral oddsMissed70%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
99%Barge oddsEarned75%Barge oddsEarned