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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions174139100150200250176190

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
Teleop+4
Endgame+14
Fouls+14
AutonomousRed +14
9Leave9
6Coral scored#3
31Coral points17
40Total auto26
TeleoperatedBlue +18
24Coral scored#29
86Coral points104
3Processor algae#3
4Net algae#4
18Processor points18
16Net points16
34Algae points34
120Total teleop138
Reef
8L4#14
11L3#10
7L2#5
4L1 · trough#3
37Game pieces#39
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +14
0Foul points0
176Total score190

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
56.70.4
52.552.9
Auto17.9
Teleop32.2
End6.6
blue by 13.2
69.93.0
62.865.8
Auto11.3
Teleop48.2
End10.3
Second
5577
#28
53.00.4
53.754.1
Auto10.4
Teleop40.3
End2.3
red by 11.7
573
#31
41.43.0
36.439.4
Auto6.9
Teleop27.4
End7.0
Third
66
#40
36.50.4
39.840.2
Auto6.0
Teleop26.1
End4.3
red by 9.6
9685
#34
26.93.0
25.028.0
Auto7.4
Teleop12.3
End7.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
43%Coral oddsMissed22%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
63%Barge oddsEarned96%Barge oddsEarned