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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions153164100200250208178

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+28Teleop
+30Endgame
+30Fouls
Autonomouslevel
9Leave9
6Coral scored#6
28Coral points28
37Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +28
34Coral scored#24
123Coral points85
2Processor algae#3
5Net algae#6
12Processor points18
20Net points24
32Algae points42
155Total teleop127
Reef
16L4#9
9L3#12
7L2#4
8L1 · trough#5
47Game pieces#39
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +30
0Foul points0
208Total score178

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
63.84.0
38.342.4
Auto18.1
Teleop37.1
End8.5
blue by 17.7
81.51.1
74.375.4
Auto24.3
Teleop46.6
End10.6
Second
63.34.0
48.652.6
Auto8.6
Teleop43.4
End11.3
red by 22.5
3603
#33
40.81.1
36.037.2
Auto6.7
Teleop26.2
End7.9
Third
50.54.0
49.353.3
Auto7.5
Teleop42.0
End1.0
red by 10.5
6861
#37
40.01.1
39.340.5
Auto6.5
Teleop26.8
End6.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
12%Coral oddsEarned42%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
93%Barge oddsEarned91%Barge oddsEarned