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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions153216100200250300144150

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+14Teleop
Endgame+18
Fouls+6
AutonomousRed +6
3Leave6
5Coral scored#3
23Coral points14
26Total auto20
TeleoperatedRed +8
19Coral scored#16
68Coral points58
3Processor algae#2
4Net algae#6
18Processor points12
16Net points24
34Algae points36
102Total teleop94
Reef
8L4#6
8L3#7
4L2#3
4L1 · trough#3
31Game pieces#27
BargeBlue +32
4Cage & park36
4Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +6
12Foul points0
144Total score150

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4391
#11
79.11.2
76.775.5
Auto15.0
Teleop54.4
End9.6
blue by 1.3
67
#1
80.43.4
77.173.8
Auto17.3
Teleop52.3
End10.7
Second
1684
#29
48.71.2
36.235.0
Auto9.9
Teleop32.6
End6.3
blue by 22.0
70.73.4
61.858.4
Auto15.6
Teleop45.4
End9.7
Third
9776
#23
43.41.2
36.935.7
Auto6.9
Teleop34.3
End2.2
blue by 5.2
6002
#40
48.63.4
61.758.3
Auto9.3
Teleop32.7
End6.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
68%Coral oddsEarned89%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
84%Barge oddsEarned99%Barge oddsEarned