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Qual 282025 FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Hemlock Semiconductor Division
Red212
553442.7
6780.4
54849.0
Blue199
285150.8
366857.8
335752.4
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions182148100200250212199

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
Teleop+7
+13Endgame
+13Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
6Leave3
5Coral scored#3
24Coral points16
30Total auto19
TeleoperatedBlue +18
28Coral scored#26
100Coral points94
3Processor algae#5
7Net algae#10
18Processor points30
28Net points40
46Algae points70
146Total teleop164
Reef
13L4#14
9L3#6
7L2#6
4L1 · trough#3
43Game pieces#44
BargeRed +20
36Cage & park16
36Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +13
0Foul points0
212Total score199

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
67
#1
80.42.5
70.9→73.4
Auto17.3
Teleop52.3
End10.7
red by 22.6
3668
#19
57.83.1
50.1→53.3
Auto11.7
Teleop38.8
End7.3
Second
548
#10
49.02.5
47.1→49.6
Auto8.1
Teleop34.8
End6.1
blue by 3.4
3357
#22
52.43.1
44.1→47.3
Auto8.7
Teleop39.0
End4.7
Third
5534
#39
42.72.5
42.8→45.3
Auto5.7
Teleop30.9
End6.1
blue by 8.0
2851
#20
50.83.1
43.8→46.9
Auto7.1
Teleop42.5
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned89%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
85%Coral oddsEarned55%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
95%Barge oddsEarned58%Barge oddsEarned