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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12321950100150200250300134199

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+33
Endgame+65
Fouls+65
AutonomousBlue +7
9Leave9
6Coral scored#7
28Coral points35
37Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +26
18Coral scored#25
65Coral points91
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#4
12Processor points12
16Net points16
28Algae points28
93Total teleop119
Reef
6L4#16
7L3#6
6L2#5
5L1 · trough#5
30Game pieces#38
BargeBlue +32
4Cage & park36
4Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +65
0Foul points0
134Total score199

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3546
#24
53.90.2
45.045.2
Auto14.0
Teleop36.5
End3.3
blue by 25.2
4391
#11
79.10.6
76.976.4
Auto15.0
Teleop54.4
End9.6
Second
9776
#23
43.40.2
38.038.2
Auto6.9
Teleop34.3
End2.2
blue by 29.6
7769
#13
73.00.6
64.263.6
Auto17.7
Teleop42.8
End12.5
Third
4855
#26
39.10.2
37.437.6
Auto9.1
Teleop27.0
End3.0
blue by 21.9
5505
#16
61.00.6
54.854.2
Auto13.0
Teleop36.0
End12.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned98%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
46%Coral oddsMissed82%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
41%Barge oddsMissed99%Barge oddsEarned