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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions19112050100150250191158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+53Teleop
+33Endgame
+33Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
0Leave0
9Coral scored#7
44Coral points33
44Total auto33
TeleoperatedRed +42
23Coral scored#14
83Coral points51
6Processor algae#3
6Net algae#8
36Processor points18
24Net points32
60Algae points50
143Total teleop101
Reef
11L4#7
8L3#6
6L2#5
7L1 · trough#3
44Game pieces#32
BargeBlue +20
4Cage & park24
4Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +33
0Foul points0
191Total score158

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
81.50.5
77.978.4
Auto24.3
Teleop46.6
End10.6
red by 10.8
70.72.0
59.861.8
Auto15.6
Teleop45.4
End9.7
Second
50.50.5
52.853.3
Auto7.5
Teleop42.0
End1.0
red by 14.1
6033
#18
36.42.0
27.829.8
Auto5.8
Teleop21.3
End9.3
Third
5436
#32
46.90.5
41.542.0
Auto11.0
Teleop27.4
End8.5
red by 15.5
31.42.0
29.031.0
Auto6.7
Teleop24.0
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned92%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
31%Coral oddsEarned21%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
91%Barge oddsMissed67%Barge oddsEarned