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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions181135100150200250200145

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+25Auto
+55Teleop
+55Endgame
+55Fouls
AutonomousRed +25
9Leave9
6Coral scored#1
28Coral points3
37Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +30
24Coral scored#23
87Coral points83
3Processor algae#2
8Net algae#3
18Processor points12
32Net points12
50Algae points24
137Total teleop107
Reef
15L4#11
8L3#5
4L2#6
3L1 · trough#2
41Game pieces#29
Bargelevel
26Cage & park26
26Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +55
0Foul points0
200Total score145

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
68.82.0
58.260.2
Auto16.2
Teleop44.5
End8.1
red by 11.0
217
#8
57.90.5
50.150.5
Auto10.0
Teleop39.8
End8.1
Second
3546
#24
53.92.0
50.552.5
Auto14.0
Teleop36.5
End3.3
red by 9.7
2620
#31
44.10.5
38.839.2
Auto10.4
Teleop25.7
End8.0
Third
548
#10
49.02.0
50.752.7
Auto8.1
Teleop34.8
End6.1
red by 5.6
9776
#23
43.40.5
37.738.2
Auto6.9
Teleop34.3
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned92%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
76%Coral oddsEarned21%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
77%Barge oddsEarned81%Barge oddsEarned