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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12515980100140180200220240122148

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+16
Endgame+28
Fouls+26
AutonomousBlue +7
9Leave0
1Coral scored#5
7Coral points23
16Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +9
18Coral scored#20
66Coral points71
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#4
12Processor points12
12Net points16
24Algae points28
90Total teleop99
Reef
7L4#13
5L3#5
3L2#4
4L1 · trough#3
24Game pieces#31
BargeBlue +12
14Cage & park26
14Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +26
2Foul points0
122Total score148

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5436
#32
46.90.1
42.342.2
Auto11.0
Teleop27.4
End8.5
blue by 8.2
1506
#17
55.10.1
55.655.6
Auto13.0
Teleop33.6
End8.6
Second
9776
#23
43.40.1
38.238.1
Auto6.9
Teleop34.3
End2.2
blue by 5.6
548
#10
49.00.1
52.752.8
Auto8.1
Teleop34.8
End6.1
Third
3603
#33
40.80.1
35.835.7
Auto6.7
Teleop26.2
End7.9
red by 3.2
5695
#36
37.70.1
32.832.9
Auto7.3
Teleop26.1
End4.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
18%Coral oddsMissed26%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
75%Barge oddsEarned91%Barge oddsEarned