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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions198138100150250200157

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+17Teleop
+43Endgame
+43Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
6Leave6
5Coral scored#3
24Coral points13
30Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +6
20Coral scored#26
72Coral points94
6Processor algae#2
9Net algae#8
36Processor points12
36Net points32
72Algae points44
144Total teleop138
Reef
7L4#8
8L3#11
5L2#5
5L1 · trough#5
40Game pieces#39
BargeRed +26
26Cage & park0
26Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +43
0Foul points0
200Total score157

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70.71.1
68.970.0
Auto15.6
Teleop45.4
End9.7
red by 20.3
50.51.5
50.752.2
Auto7.5
Teleop42.0
End1.0
Second
65.91.1
60.461.5
Auto12.5
Teleop42.6
End10.7
red by 22.4
9776
#23
43.41.5
40.241.7
Auto6.9
Teleop34.3
End2.2
Third
3357
#22
52.41.1
48.849.9
Auto8.7
Teleop39.0
End4.7
red by 15.9
815
#38
36.51.5
37.338.8
Auto7.1
Teleop28.6
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
85%Coral oddsEarned33%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
92%Barge oddsEarned30%Barge oddsMissed