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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions19316550100150250300137163

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+35
Teleop+36
Endgame+28
Fouls+26
AutonomousBlue +35
9Leave9
1Coral scored#8
7Coral points42
16Total auto51
TeleoperatedBlue +1
20Coral scored#18
73Coral points64
2Processor algae#3
5Net algae#6
12Processor points18
20Net points24
32Algae points42
105Total teleop106
Reef
8L4#11
4L3#6
4L2#4
5L1 · trough#5
28Game pieces#35
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +26
2Foul points0
137Total score163

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4391
#11
79.12.4
79.777.2
Auto15.0
Teleop54.4
End9.6
red by 16.9
5114
#15
62.20.7
58.259.0
Auto18.8
Teleop34.8
End8.6
Second
50.52.4
52.249.8
Auto7.5
Teleop42.0
End1.0
red by 1.4
548
#10
49.00.7
50.451.2
Auto8.1
Teleop34.8
End6.1
Third
5110
#35
37.12.4
39.637.1
Auto6.7
Teleop25.8
End4.6
blue by 7.0
2620
#31
44.10.7
43.444.1
Auto10.4
Teleop25.7
End8.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
89%Coral oddsEarned49%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
91%Barge oddsEarned93%Barge oddsMissed