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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions167152100200165143

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
+32Teleop
+22Endgame
+22Fouls
AutonomousBlue +11
6Leave6
4Coral scored#6
20Coral points31
26Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +43
24Coral scored#14
87Coral points50
2Processor algae#1
6Net algae#6
12Processor points6
24Net points24
36Algae points30
123Total teleop80
Reef
8L4#9
9L3#4
8L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
36Game pieces#27
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +22
0Foul points0
165Total score143

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5505
#16
61.01.0
57.558.5
Auto13.0
Teleop36.0
End12.0
red by 8.7
7174
#12
52.30.0
51.251.1
Auto14.7
Teleop31.0
End6.6
Second
3357
#22
52.41.0
50.151.1
Auto8.7
Teleop39.0
End4.7
red by 3.8
6002
#40
48.60.0
48.648.6
Auto9.3
Teleop32.7
End6.6
Third
9776
#23
43.41.0
42.443.4
Auto6.9
Teleop34.3
End2.2
red by 5.8
6120
#30
37.60.0
37.737.6
Auto9.0
Teleop21.7
End7.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned94%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
45%Coral oddsEarned57%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
82%Barge oddsEarned82%Barge oddsEarned