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Qual 152025 FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Consumers Energy Division
Red165
438145.9
296052.7
750149.9
Blue129
719751.9
776839.4
765646.8
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions134135100120140160165129

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+26Teleop
+36Endgame
+36Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
9Leave6
5Coral scored#3
24Coral points13
33Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +12
18Coral scored#20
66Coral points72
2Processor algae#1
7Net algae#4
12Processor points6
28Net points16
40Algae points22
106Total teleop94
Reef
7L4#9
8L3#8
6L2#4
2L1 · trough#2
32Game pieces#28
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +36
0Foul points0
165Total score129

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2960
#15
52.72.7
49.9→52.6
Auto9.0
Teleop34.7
End9.0
red by 0.7
7197
#12
51.90.2
48.2→48.5
Auto8.8
Teleop41.8
End1.4
Second
7501
#23
49.92.7
38.3→41.0
Auto8.5
Teleop32.1
End9.3
red by 3.1
7656
#26
46.80.2
38.2→38.4
Auto7.7
Teleop28.4
End10.8
Third
4381
#9
45.92.7
36.7→39.4
Auto15.1
Teleop22.9
End7.8
red by 6.5
7768
#37
39.40.2
39.2→39.5
Auto7.0
Teleop28.0
End4.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
88%Auto oddsEarned92%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
98%Barge oddsEarned71%Barge oddsEarned