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Red187
1066647.2
719751.9
654855.7
Blue183
357262.7
750149.9
535256.3
49%Model gave it51%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions172173140150160180190200210220187183

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
+32Teleop
+10Endgame
+4Fouls
AutonomousBlue +14
3Leave6
6Coral scored#8
30Coral points41
33Total auto47
TeleoperatedRed +46
28Coral scored#19
102Coral points68
4Processor algae#4
6Net algae#3
24Processor points24
24Net points12
48Algae points36
150Total teleop104
Reef
10L4#8
12L3#7
5L2#7
7L1 · trough#5
44Game pieces#34
BargeBlue +22
4Cage & park26
4Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +4
0Foul points6
187Total score183

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.71.6
45.347.0
Auto13.6
Teleop39.0
End3.1
blue by 7.0
3572
#17
62.70.9
61.061.9
Auto20.3
Teleop33.9
End8.4
Second
7197
#12
51.91.6
50.952.5
Auto8.8
Teleop41.8
End1.4
blue by 4.4
5352
#11
56.30.9
49.850.7
Auto14.6
Teleop32.9
End8.8
Third
47.21.6
45.146.8
Auto9.1
Teleop33.2
End4.9
blue by 2.7
7501
#23
49.90.9
40.841.7
Auto8.5
Teleop32.1
End9.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
84%Auto oddsEarned91%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
20%Coral oddsMissed30%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
39%Barge oddsMissed97%Barge oddsEarned