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Red116
554747.2
296052.7
437539.9
Blue165
258651.2
118958.7
438145.9
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions144162100200250116165

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+39
Endgame+49
Fouls+49
AutonomousBlue +4
9Leave9
5Coral scored#6
24Coral points28
33Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +35
14Coral scored#20
51Coral points72
1Processor algae#2
3Net algae#5
6Processor points12
12Net points20
18Algae points32
69Total teleop104
Reef
8L4#9
5L3#6
4L2#8
2L1 · trough#3
23Game pieces#33
BargeBlue +10
14Cage & park24
14Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +49
0Foul points0
116Total score165

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2960
#15
52.71.3
50.949.5
Auto9.0
Teleop34.7
End9.0
blue by 6.0
1189
#19
58.71.1
53.754.9
Auto11.4
Teleop38.4
End8.9
Second
5547
#34
47.21.3
46.044.7
Auto7.4
Teleop32.0
End7.9
blue by 4.0
2586
#27
51.21.1
49.550.7
Auto13.8
Teleop34.0
End3.4
Third
4375
#39
39.91.3
38.737.4
Auto8.2
Teleop29.4
End2.3
blue by 6.0
45.91.1
44.545.6
Auto15.1
Teleop22.9
End7.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
88%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
15%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
92%Barge oddsEarned94%Barge oddsEarned