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Red175
546070.4
607747.1
20145.2
Blue170
118849.5
750149.9
776839.4
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions176138100150200250175170

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+15Teleop
+5Endgame
+5Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave6
6Coral scored#3
31Coral points17
37Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +1
26Coral scored#25
94Coral points89
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#5
12Processor points12
16Net points20
28Algae points32
122Total teleop121
Reef
9L4#14
11L3#5
7L2#6
5L1 · trough#3
38Game pieces#35
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +5
0Foul points0
175Total score170

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70.40.1
70.470.5
Auto22.0
Teleop44.3
End4.2
red by 20.5
7501
#23
49.91.6
48.650.3
Auto8.5
Teleop32.1
End9.3
Second
6077
#30
47.10.1
47.047.1
Auto7.2
Teleop30.5
End9.4
blue by 2.4
1188
#36
49.51.6
47.849.5
Auto14.4
Teleop29.3
End5.7
Third
201
#18
45.20.1
44.244.3
Auto10.6
Teleop27.4
End7.2
red by 5.8
7768
#37
39.41.6
37.739.4
Auto7.0
Teleop28.0
End4.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned88%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
68%Coral oddsEarned18%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
96%Barge oddsEarned88%Barge oddsEarned