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Red170
46957.7
438145.9
496759.9
Blue212
376763.0
955845.5
102359.4
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions181189100150200250170212

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+16
Endgame+36
Fouls+42
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave0
8Coral scored#9
40Coral points47
40Total auto47
TeleoperatedBlue +9
23Coral scored#25
82Coral points91
2Processor algae#2
5Net algae#5
12Processor points12
20Net points20
32Algae points32
114Total teleop123
Reef
10L4#13
7L3#10
10L2#6
4L1 · trough#5
38Game pieces#41
BargeBlue +20
16Cage & park36
16Total endgame36
Penalties & totalBlue +42
0Foul points6
170Total score212

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4967
#16
59.90.0
59.959.9
Auto11.7
Teleop40.6
End7.6
blue by 3.1
63.00.8
61.061.8
Auto14.3
Teleop40.7
End8.0
Second
469
#22
57.70.0
57.757.7
Auto16.3
Teleop39.4
End2.0
blue by 1.7
1023
#10
59.40.8
57.458.2
Auto14.1
Teleop38.9
End6.4
Third
45.90.0
45.945.9
Auto15.1
Teleop22.9
End7.8
red by 0.4
9558
#28
45.50.8
43.444.2
Auto7.5
Teleop30.1
End7.9