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Red145
535256.3
118958.7
1066647.2
Blue172
258651.2
516659.2
357262.7
56%Model gave it44%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions200197160180220240145172

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+8
Teleop+11
Endgame+23
Fouls+27
AutonomousBlue +8
0Leave0
7Coral scored#8
33Coral points41
33Total auto41
TeleoperatedBlue +3
21Coral scored#18
74Coral points65
1Processor algae#3
7Net algae#7
6Processor points18
28Net points28
34Algae points46
108Total teleop111
Reef
11L4#13
6L3#6
6L2#4
5L1 · trough#3
36Game pieces#36
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Penalties & totalBlue +27
0Foul points4
145Total score172

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1189
#19
58.70.7
58.758.0
Auto11.4
Teleop38.4
End8.9
blue by 4.0
3572
#17
62.70.4
62.562.2
Auto20.3
Teleop33.9
End8.4
Second
5352
#11
56.30.7
56.455.7
Auto14.6
Teleop32.9
End8.8
blue by 2.8
59.20.4
59.058.7
Auto10.6
Teleop37.8
End10.8
Third
47.20.7
47.346.6
Auto9.1
Teleop33.2
End4.9
blue by 4.0
2586
#27
51.20.4
51.150.7
Auto13.8
Teleop34.0
End3.4