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Red173
521673.8
360462.2
531440.8
Blue203
207572.0
1050551.3
107665.3
49%Model gave it51%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions173174140150160170180190200210173203

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+21
Teleop+32
Endgame+30
Fouls+30
AutonomousBlue +21
3Leave0
5Coral scored#10
27Coral points51
30Total auto51
TeleoperatedBlue +11
28Coral scored#22
99Coral points80
2Processor algae#3
4Net algae#10
12Processor points18
16Net points40
28Algae points58
127Total teleop138
Reef
11L4#9
8L3#11
7L2#6
7L1 · trough#6
39Game pieces#45
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +30
0Foul points0
173Total score203

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5216
#25
73.80.3
66.867.1
Auto19.8
Teleop49.4
End4.7
red by 1.8
72.02.3
64.967.3
Auto17.3
Teleop44.8
End9.8
Second
3604
#12
62.20.3
51.251.5
Auto13.5
Teleop43.7
End5.0
blue by 3.1
1076
#19
65.32.3
52.154.4
Auto16.8
Teleop45.2
End3.4
Third
5314
#33
40.80.3
38.939.2
Auto8.7
Teleop24.4
End7.7
blue by 10.5
51.32.3
39.742.0
Auto9.6
Teleop41.4
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned92%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
78%Coral oddsEarned74%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
75%Barge oddsEarned77%Barge oddsEarned