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Red209
506651.2
30265.8
213772.8
Blue168
360462.2
515249.7
663747.7
87%Model gave it13%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions198157100250300209168

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+59Teleop
+41Endgame
+41Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
6Leave6
10Coral scored#5
52Coral points24
58Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +31
28Coral scored#27
101Coral points96
4Processor algae#1
5Net algae#3
24Processor points6
20Net points12
44Algae points18
145Total teleop114
Reef
11L4#12
13L3#6
7L2#10
7L1 · trough#4
47Game pieces#36
BargeBlue +18
6Cage & park24
6Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +41
0Foul points0
209Total score168

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
72.81.0
72.573.5
Auto20.0
Teleop44.9
End7.9
red by 10.6
3604
#12
62.20.7
54.555.2
Auto13.5
Teleop43.7
End5.0
Second
302
#7
65.81.0
63.764.7
Auto19.1
Teleop44.2
End2.5
red by 16.2
5152
#27
49.70.7
44.645.3
Auto7.7
Teleop33.1
End8.9
Third
5066
#24
51.21.0
46.747.7
Auto15.8
Teleop33.7
End1.7
red by 3.5
6637
#35
47.70.7
47.147.8
Auto13.4
Teleop32.0
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned82%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
92%Coral oddsEarned69%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
56%Barge oddsMissed78%Barge oddsEarned