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Qual 682025 FIRST in Michigan State Championship - Aptiv Division
Red156
91060.1
531440.8
515249.7
Blue189
779054.2
1050551.3
360462.2
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions172173140150160180190200210156189

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
Teleop+45
Endgame+33
Fouls+33
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave0
6Coral scored#6
31Coral points30
37Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +52
14Coral scored#29
49Coral points103
4Processor algae#3
5Net algae#6
24Processor points18
20Net points24
44Algae points42
93Total teleop145
Reef
8L4#12
6L3#11
3L2#8
3L1 · trough#4
29Game pieces#44
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +33
0Foul points0
156Total score189

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
910
#9
60.10.6
63.2→62.6
Auto18.3
Teleop32.1
End9.7
blue by 2.1
3604
#12
62.21.3
58.7→59.9
Auto13.5
Teleop43.7
End5.0
Second
5152
#27
49.70.6
47.6→46.9
Auto7.7
Teleop33.1
End8.9
blue by 4.5
7790
#16
54.21.3
51.1→52.4
Auto9.2
Teleop38.1
End6.9
Third
5314
#33
40.80.6
43.6→43.0
Auto8.7
Teleop24.4
End7.7
blue by 10.5
10505
#23
51.31.3
48.9→50.1
Auto9.6
Teleop41.4
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned92%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
46%Coral oddsEarned69%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
99%Barge oddsEarned73%Barge oddsEarned