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Red178
634434.2
440560.6
24555.4
Blue152
661564.7
387543.6
5150.4
28%Model gave it72%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions170196100150250300178152

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+14Teleop
+26Endgame
+26Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave0
7Coral scored#5
34Coral points26
40Total auto26
Teleoperatedlevel
22Coral scored#14
78Coral points52
2Processor algae#3
3Net algae#8
12Processor points18
12Net points32
24Algae points50
102Total teleop102
Reef
12L4#8
8L3#5
5L2#4
4L1 · trough#2
34Game pieces#30
BargeRed +12
36Cage & park24
36Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +26
0Foul points0
178Total score152

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4405
#18
60.60.6
57.658.2
Auto15.6
Teleop35.8
End9.1
blue by 4.1
6615
#15
64.72.4
65.563.2
Auto13.2
Teleop49.7
End1.7
Second
245
#21
55.40.6
56.657.2
Auto15.3
Teleop34.5
End5.6
red by 4.9
51
#14
50.42.4
51.148.7
Auto9.7
Teleop31.7
End9.0
Third
6344
#28
34.20.6
30.831.4
Auto7.6
Teleop16.6
End9.9
blue by 9.4
3875
#36
43.62.4
44.842.5
Auto7.3
Teleop30.0
End6.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned92%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
43%Coral oddsEarned66%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
96%Barge oddsEarned70%Barge oddsEarned