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Red199
521673.8
519348.6
22666.1
Blue197
49471.4
5150.4
317573.1
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions202213100150250300199197

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+22Teleop
+2Endgame
+2Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
0Leave0
11Coral scored#9
55Coral points44
55Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +11
20Coral scored#24
72Coral points85
4Processor algae#2
8Net algae#5
24Processor points12
32Net points20
56Algae points32
128Total teleop117
Reef
10L4#14
6L3#10
8L2#7
7L1 · trough#2
43Game pieces#40
BargeBlue +20
16Cage & park36
16Total endgame36
Penalties & totalRed +2
0Foul points0
199Total score197

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5216
#25
73.80.2
73.673.8
Auto19.8
Teleop49.4
End4.7
red by 0.7
3175
#22
73.10.0
73.173.1
Auto17.5
Teleop47.2
End8.4
Second
226
#2
66.10.2
65.966.1
Auto18.7
Teleop39.5
End7.9
blue by 5.3
494
#4
71.40.0
71.371.4
Auto14.7
Teleop45.7
End11.0
Third
5193
#29
48.60.2
48.448.6
Auto8.9
Teleop33.1
End6.6
blue by 1.8
51
#14
50.40.0
50.450.4
Auto9.7
Teleop31.7
End9.0